Attached are forecast maps from this afternoon that you can post. They’re very similar to yesterday’s, with still disagreement between the models. I give only the wide-area maps here, except for two from the National Weather Service of Virginia; observers may want to visit the Web sites, to get more detail for their areas; I use https://weather.us/model-charts/euro but services like Clear Sky Clock, and the National Weather Service (NWS) at www.weather.gov also have useful maps, especially NWS at the State level. But by now, it’s useful to look at the actual weather satellite images, and their loops, to see the motion; using them to modify the predictions, you can make your own estimates of what might happen in your area. For example, the NWS maps of Virginia clearly favor the area west and south of Richmond, towards the northwesternmost part of N. Carolina. But looking at the current visual satellite loop (of course, after sundown, you need to use the IR loop; I use http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/), there is a rather large thunderstorm over north-central N. Carolina that’s intensifying and slowly moving east. The area east of Richmond, to the Chesapeake Bay, is much clearer than the area to the west. So it might be better for us to go northeast along the path rather than southwest. We will wait, to see what the loop looks like around 5pm, to decide where to drive and select our sites. The local forecasts are just saying partly cloudy, with a small chance of a thunderstorm, and they are now mentioning that fog may be possible in some areas, so as I noted before, try to avoid low, wet areas. Good luck to all!
David
PS The satellite loop shows the thunderstorms over central N. Carolina expanding, with clouds now over southernmost central VA and apparent motion towards the east-northeast. I think that will be a problem for the areas east of Richmond/Petersburg along the path, so like Mike, we'll probably go west/southwest, hopefully far enough to get on the west side of the N. Carolina thunderstorm area.
David
EU Model
USA Model
Canadian Model
Predicted cloud Coverage maps at the time of the Pluto occultation, updated 8/14
7Timer map
Distance (Occult) Prob. Cloudy Station info Submitted by City
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2073.7 km @325° 0.0% 40% (16) Hanna W Home : video + gps William Hanna Columbia Falls, MT
2055.9 km @331° 0.1% 0% (3) Umatilla, OR : video + gps Tony George Scottsdale, AZ USA (winter)
2029.6 km 0.1% - == Right limit plus 3-Sigma ==
1901.4 km 2.3% - == Right limit plus 2-Sigma ==
1894.5 km @336° 2.6% 10% (17) Anthony S Home : video + gps Seth Anthony Klamath Falls, Oregon
1773.1 km 15.9% - == Right limit plus 1-Sigma ==
1751.3 km @331° 20.3% 0% (32) Anderson C Home : video + gps Chris Anderson Twin Falls
1652.9 km @337° 47.5% 80% (10) Bean J Home : video + gps James Bean Carson City
1644.8 km 50.0% - === Right limit ===
1644.0 km @339° 50.2% 0% (9) TSwift Mobile DixonCA : video + gps Ted Swift Davis, CA
1629.6 km @337° 54.7% 90% (4) Bardecker J Home : video + gps Jerry Bardecker Gardnerville, NV
1517.1 km @340° 84.0% 0% (24) Nolthenius R Home : video + gps Richard Nolthenius Aptos, CA
1240.0 km @339° 99.9% 0% (12) Lyzenga G Home : video + gps Greg Lyzenga Altadena, CA
1215.9 km @324° 100.0% 100% (14) Messner S Home : video + gps Messner Northfield, MN
1143.2 km @335° 100.0% 50% (57) Collins M MH20 : video + gps Michael Collins Flagstaff, AZ
992.8 km @325° 100.0% 100% (27) Oesper D Home : video + gps David Oesper Dodgeville, WI
952.5 km @337° 100.0% 20% (36) Thomas W Home : video + gps Wayne Thomas Florence AZ
914.3 km @334° 100.0% 40% (34) Edens H.E. Home : video + gps Esdert Edens Magdalena, NM
821.0 km @325° 100.0% 100% (2) Dunford B Home : video + gps Bob Dunford Naperville, IL
690.2 km @326° 100.0% 100% (11) Olsen Urbana IL : video + gps Aart Olsen Urbana, IL
433.1 km @332° 100.0% 20% (8) Cobble K Home : video + radio Kevin Cobble Princeton, TX
345.2 km @332° 100.0% 40% (56) Campbell D Meyer Obs : photoelectric + gps Dick Campbell Clifton
296.3 km @332° 100.0% 60% (41) Barton J Home : video + gps J Barton Robinson, TX
236.6 km @331° 100.0% 40% (31) Shreveport Observatory : video + gps Darrel Irwin McLeod, Texas
229.4 km @327° 100.0% 100% (40) Medomak Retreat Center : visual + radio Bruce Berger Chelmsford, MA
200.2 km @326° 100.0% 90% (37) Young, B - Naylor : video + gps Roxanne Kamin Hershey, PA
188.3 km @328° 100.0% 50% (26) J Brooks Winchester VA : video + gps John Brooks Winchester
117.9 km @332° 100.0% 20% (13) Creek Hill Observatory : video + gps Ned Smith Trenton, GA
104.9 km @323° 100.0% 60% (38) UMD Observatory : video + gps James Curbo Silver Spring
104.9 km @323° 100.0% 60% (58) UMD Obs : video + gps Elizabeth Warner College Park
85.3 km @325° 100.0% 0% (51) Roanoke VA Mike Good : drift scan + radio David Dunham Greenbelt MD
82.6 km @329° 100.0% 10% (35) Fan Mtn. Obs., UVA : photoelectric + gps David Dunham Greenbelt MD
76.6 km @332° 100.0% 0% (19) Lynchburg College Observatory : video + gps Steve Conard Gamber, MD
76.2 km @324° 100.0% 10% (50) Grassland Mtn Obs Asheville NC : other + gps David Dunham Greenbelt MD
64.1 km @332° 100.0% 10% (52) Bare Dark Sky Obs 34inMayland CC : other + radio David Dunham Greenbelt MD
58.2 km @322° 100.0% 0% (49) Boone NC Dark Sky Obs : other + gps David Dunham Greenbelt MD
53.5 km @326° 100.0% 80% (39) Tuscaloosa, AL William Keel 16in : video + gps David Dunham Greenbelt MD
52.2 km @334° 100.0% 50% (33) Kamin - Liberty Unv : video + gps Roxanne Kamin Hershey, PA
38.4 km @331° 100.0% 20% (22) George Observatory (Houston) : video + gps John Moore Tulsa
3.4 km @311° 100.0% 60% (44) Henrico VA Randy Tatum : video + gps David Dunham Greenbelt MD
0.0 km 100.0% - ==== Centre Line ====
-4.8 km @81° 100.0% 0% (45) Nantucket MA Maria Mitchell Obs : video + gps David Dunham Greenbelt MD
-18.8 km @154° 100.0% 50% (53) Venable example ~20 km S : video + gps Venable Yonkers
-24.1 km @139° 100.0% 80% (48) Craven Williams Obs uncertain : other + gps David Dunham Greenbelt MD
-32.6 km @139° 100.0% 60% (47) Roper Mtn Sci Ctr SC uncertain : other + gps David Dunham Greenbelt MD
-35.0 km @143° 100.0% 50% (46) Cline Obs GTTC from SwRI : other + gps David Dunham Greenbelt MD
-35.5 km @154° 100.0% 40% (55) Guilford Tech Comm Col : other + gps David Dunham Greenbelt MD
-46.0 km @143° 100.0% 10% (59) Oxford NC Brookland Church : video + gps David Dunham Greenbelt MD
-58.5 km @150° 100.0% - (60) Timberlake NC possible 2nd place : video + gps David Dunham Greenbelt MD
-64.0 km @154° 100.0% 100% (23) Highland Road Park Obs : video + gps John Moore Tulsa
-578.7 km @151° 100.0% 90% (15) Wolski B Home : video + radio Bob Wolski Saint Augustine
-1644.8 km 50.0% - === Left limit ===
-1773.1 km 15.9% - == Left limit plus 1-Sigma ==
-1901.4 km 2.3% - == Left limit plus 2-Sigma ==
-2029.6 km 0.1% - == Left limit plus 3-Sigma ==
OccultWatcher station list with predicted cloud cover is at bottom of page
List Updated 21:00UT 8/14
Clear Sky Chart https://www.cleardarksky.com, Last updated 2018-08-14 10:56:10
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